Farmers and grain traders are raising alarm over government’s failure to release first-round of crop production estimates, warning the delay is clouding market signals and could trigger poor pricing.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Development has yet to publish the figures, which are traditionally released before or alongside farm gate prices, despite announcing minimum prices earlier this week.
Efforts to get a timeline from Ministry of Agriculture spokesperson Salome Gangire and Principal Secretary Erica Maganga drew no response, but stakeholders have since said the lack of crop production data may affect market prices.
In an interview, Farmers Union of Malawi (FUM) president Maness Nkhata said the absence of estimates leaves farmers “flying blind” at a critical marketing window.
She warned that already contentious farm gate prices, widely viewed as below production costs, could push farmers to seek better returns through exports, with implications for national food availability.
Said Nkhata: “Releasing minimum farm gate prices without corresponding crop production estimates presents a significant concern.
“These estimates help determine supply levels. Without them, off-takers can buy at the minimum price and later resell at much higher prices if shortages emerge.”
Grain Traders Association of Malawi president Grace Mijiga Mhango echoed the concern, saying traders rely on early estimates to decide whether to import or export.
She said: “From the estimates, we determine whether we have a food shortage and plan imports or surplus and look for export markets.
“By March or April, these figures are usually available. Their absence is worrisome.”
Mhango attributed the delay partly to ongoing harvesting in some areas and the impact of erratic weather, but stressed that preliminary figures remain essential for planning.
On his part, agriculture expert Leonard Chimwaza said the delay risks costly miscalculations across the value chain.
He said: “Crop estimates signal whether we face hunger risks or trading opportunities. Stakeholders reconfigure their plans based on this data.
“Any delay can lead to improper planning and economic losses. In an agro-based economy like Malawi, these figures are not optional, they are fundamental.”
In the past six years, the ministry has released first-round estimates between February and April.
This year’s silence comes amid a turbulent growing season marked by floods in January and February and prolonged dry spells across 19 districts, particularly in the South and parts of the Centre.
Malawi recorded a maize deficit of about 600 000 metric tonnes (MT) in the 2024/25 growing season, producing 2.9 million MT against a national requirement of 3.6 million MT, forcing imports from Zambia.
Repeated climate shocks, including cyclones Idai, Gombe, Ana, Freddy and El Niño conditions have further destabilised production, entrenching Malawi’s vulnerability to food-insecurity.
